Hee-Haw

Poker players like to call each other names.

Last night, there was a donkey at the table. A donkey is a person who only plays their own cards; they don't consider what cards the other person might be holding. You can make a lot of money off donkeys because they over-value their own hands. In fact, I took about $300 off this guy the night before (that's how I knew he was a donkey!) and I watched him lose a lot more to other players.

That said, it's hard to beat stupid and lucky when they get together. I put this one guy all-in three times last night. Each time, he was giving me even odds on money, while only having a one-in-ten chance of winning, and each time, he won!

To put things in non-poker terms, imagine we play a game where we roll a die. If the die comes up 1, 2, or 3, I'll pay you $100 and if it comes up 4, 5, or 6, you'll pay me $100. At the end of the night, who do you think will win?

If you said 'no one' you're right! You're getting even money (betting $100 to win $100) and the odds of you winning are 50-50, or even.

Now, if instead of a 6-sided die, we played with a 10-sided die, and if I only payed you if the die came up a 1, but you would pay me if it came up 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 then you might not want to play! You'd be getting even money ($100 to win $100) but only one-to-ten odds to win!

Oh, once in a while, you'd get lucky and roll some 1s, but you'd be stupid to play this game with me and you'd be lucky to win.

Mathematically, that's exactly what happened to me last night. Oh, it was couched in very clever poker plays, filled with traps and guile, but all that work I did was for naught; that donkey kept rolling 1s. Should have won over $1000 but ended up losing $400 on the night (I won money from other players).

Now, it would be very, very easy to exclaim that this person was a horrible player and that he should have been broke 3 times already, but being the classy lady I am, I used a more indirect approach. Each time, I showed my cards to the table, and each time, the table realized that he was 1) making poor calls and 2) lucky - without me saying a word. If fact, sometimes, they said it for me!

No, I handled the defeat with grace but laced with just a hint of disdain. I rolled my eyes in a cute kind of way and said, 'nice hand,' but left after that... the odds of him beating me three times in a row are 1 in 1000. The odds of him beating me four times were 1 in 10000 but the way the night was headed, it felt like a sure thing. Sometimes it's just not your night!